International Relations Theory and the Ukrainian War

Abstract Drawing on my qualitative and quantitative research I show that the motives for war have changed in course of last four centuries, causes responses others to use force are shaped by society. Leaders who start wars rarely behave with substantive instrumental rationality assumed realist rationalist approaches. For this reason, historically they lose more than half start. After 1945, frequency failure rises over 80 percent. Rationalists allow miscalculation but attribute it lack information. In most wars, information was available beforehand indicated, or certainly suggested, venture would not succeed militarily fail achieve its political goals. The Ukraine is a case point.